What We Would Ultimately Find..?
January 10, 2010 6 Comments
If one considers the millions of years of pre-history, and the rapid technological advancement occurring now, if you apply that to a hypothetical alien race, one can figure the probabilities of how advanced the explorers will find them. The conclusion is “we will find apes or angels, but not men.”
Why? Consider the history of Planet Earth. Let the height of the Empire State building represent the 5 billion year life of Terra. The height of a one-foot ruler perched on top would represent the million years of Man’s existence. The thickness of a dime will represent the ten thousand years of Man’s civilization. And the thickness of a postage stamp will represent the 300 years of Man’s technological civilization. An unknown portion above represents “pre-Singularity Man”, the period up to the point where mankind hits the Singularity/evolves into a higher form/turns into angels. Say another dime. Above that would be another Empire State building, representing the latter 5 billion years of Terra’s lifespan.
If you picked a millimeter of this tower at random, what would you most likely hit? One of the Empire State buildings, of course. So,assuming only one civilization develops on a planet, chances are the first-in-scout starship Daniel Boone will discover mostly planets that are currently empty of alien civilizations (but they might have an almost 50% chance to discover valuable Forerunner artifacts or other paleotechnology).
As a matter of terminology, a long-extinct star faring alien civilization are commonly called “Forerunners”, “Precursors”, “Ancients”, “Elder race”, “Progenitors”, or “Predecessors”. Their thousand year old ruins are sobering, but their high-tech artifacts are generally far in advance of current tech levels and are of course both incredibly valuable yet incredibly dangerous. Archaeologists who stumble over such remains have a tendency to be killed by pirates, and their artifacts stolen.
If you only use the section with an alien civilization, you have a ruler and two dimes worth of apes and angels, and a postage stamp worth of near Human civilization. Ergo: apes or angels, but not men.
As a side note, one can use the time between apes and angels for the “average lifespan of a technological civilization”. Insert this into the Drake equation along with a few other guesses and you can calculate the average distance between alien civilization homeworlds. (and of course the distance between Terra and the closest aliens).
Consider the high improbability that any two Earth-like planets will form and evolve to the exact and ideal conditions that develop and support carbon-based life.
Consider also the number of mass extinctions that have occurred in Earth’s past. It is unlikely that the same number of these would occur on another Earth- like world at exactly the same time and with the exact same frequency.
Finally, consider the cultural developments in Earth’s history, and apply a few “What Ifs.” What if Democracy had never developed beyond the conceptual stage? What if Rome had never fallen? What if Columbus had never received any financial backing from the Spaniards? What if the Nazis had developed the atomic bomb first?
Would any of one of these events have delayed or advanced human development by as much as 0.001%? One value given for the age of the Earth is 4.567 billion years. A +/- 0.001% change would set human evolution back by 4.567 million years (Apes), or advance it by 4.567 million years (Angels).
Thus, by “Apes & Angels” one could say that any two worlds that formed at exactly the same time, and that have had billions of years to go from dust to sentient life, could differ by as much as 9.134 million years in evolution!
A divergence of only 0.000001% would still separate the two extremes by 9.134 thousand years. With this value, one alien world could have a bronze-age culture (year = 2560 BCE), while another could be far ahead of our own, both culturally and technologically (year = 6574 CE). Maybe not “Apes & Angels” but perhaps “Spearchuckers & Supermen”?
My Example: The planet Earth will have a life-span of roughly ten billion years. Mankind (Homo sapiens) appeared on Earth approximately 100,000 years ago. The bronze age began about 5300 years ago. The Industrial Revolution began about 250 years ago.
When will we humans evolve into angels? Vernor Vinge thinks the Singularity will happen no later than the year 2030. But I’ll be generous and use 500 years from now, using John Barnes’ rule of thumb. How long will the angels last? No idea. For lack of anything else, let’s say 100,000 years from now, placing us current humans midway between apes and angels.
Now, assuming that the Daniel Boone only visits planets that be hosts to alien species, and assuming that each planet will only produce one alien species (which is a very questionable assumption), this means that the chance of discovering a living alien species is about 200,000/10,000,000,000 = 0.00002 = one chance in 50,000.
The poor Daniel Boone will on average have to visit fifty thousand planets in order to find one alien species. (Of course the Daniel Boone will probably be targeting planets about the same age as Earth and using other strategies to drastically reduce the number it will have to visit.)
|Now, say that somehow the Daniel Boone manages to visit enough planets to discover 267 alien species. What level with they be at? Doing the math, 133 in 267 will be angels, 126 in 267 will be cave men, 7 in 267 will be on par with ancient Egypt, and only one in 267 will be a technological species. Keeping in mind that in this case, “technological” means it has technology ranging from steam power to something out of Star Wars (the 1760’s to the 2500’s).
The Daniel Boone will encounter 126 planets full of cave-man level aliens that they can play “Chariots of the Gods” with, and will have to avoid 133 planets with god-like species eager to put our intrepid explorers into giant petri dishes for their experiments with primitive life forms.
If these figures do not suit you, this is your opportunity to play with the various values until more reasonable numbers appear. But you will be forced to live with the implications of any values you change.
In those science fiction novels that care about technical details, there are some solutions mentioned. They all rely upon some method to start all the alien species in a stellar region simultaneously. This means that they will all develop at roughly the same rate, and encounter each other at roughly the same technological level. Solutions include postulating some alien race at the dawn of galactic history seeding planets, or disasters like gamma-ray bursters destroying all life in a galactic zone, forcing the planets to start re-evolving life starting at the same point in time.
I say “homeworlds” because they might have colonized nearby stars to form an empire. In this case the homeworld will probably be in the center of the empire’s sphere of influence. Therefore the closest aliens will be the average distance between minus the radius of their empire. Go to The Tough Guide to the Known Galaxy and read the entry “HOMEWORLD”
If you already have an idea of how close you want civilizations to be spaced, you work the Drake equation backwards. Keep altering the values until you get the spacing you want. But now you have to live with the consequences of those various values, and their implications.