METI: Gloom And Doom Hype of Alien Invasion
October 21, 2010 Leave a comment
Those who propose, or oppose, sending Messages to Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence(METI) must contemplate the Hamlet-like question: To send or not to send? The science known as SETI deals with searching for messages from aliens. METI science deals with the creation of messages to aliens. Thus, SETI and METI proponents have quite different perspectives. METI pursues not a local, but a more global purpose -to overcome the Great Silence in the Universe, bringing to our extraterrestrial neighbors the long-expected annunciation,”You are not alone!”
A frequent objection raised by sci fi writers , perhaps intentionally if not reasonably, is that such a program is dangerous. If we send radio messages to other intelligent civilization, it would probably invade and then eradicate us. We can refer to a fear of transmitting from Earth as METI-phobia. It has its roots in fears expressed right after transmission of the first interstellar radio message, from Arecibo in 1974. The Nobel laureate Martin Ryle, a prominent radio astronomer, publicly proposed imposing an interdiction of any attempts at messaging from Earth to prospective extraterrestrial civilizations. Our understanding of the given problem starts with a certain “double standard”: many vocal and impressionable people are afraid of a super-powerful and super-aggressive, Something from which there is no salvation, and which has either already long ago found us, or which will by all means soon find us, from the radio emission of tens of powerful military radars in the USA and Russia, which formed the basis of their national ballistic missile warning systems, working continuously, day and night, since the sixties of the last century. Thus, even in the case of civilizations as primitive and power limited as we, detection over prodigious distances can already be assumed.
Recently, some scientists and SF writers have expressed their concern that sending messages to the stars in our galaxy, which may have a habitable life, jeopardizes existence of our own civilization because our signals helps ETs to pin down location of the Solar System in the Milky Way. If the Aliens reached the level of a super-civilization, it might send a space fleet to the Earth to either destroy or to convert us to slaves. Comparison of the total number of the radar astronomy transmissions with respect to that used for sending messages to extra-terrestrial civilizations reveals that the probability of detection of the radio signals to extraterrestrials (ETs) is one million times smaller than that of the radar signals used to study planets and asteroids in the Solar System. However, it is worth noticeable that over all the radar astronomy history about 1,400 sets of radio transmissions were produced that covers about 2000 fold more area of sky than overall area of sky covered by METI transmissions.
Time, Time Bond!!
The another important factor which can’t be ignored is ‘time’. Total duration of time of radar transmissions exceeds the overall time interval of the METI transmissions by a factor of 500. Therefore, we can conclude that the probability to detect the radar astronomy transmissions by a hostile super-civilization is 2000*500 = 1,000,000 times higher than that of the METI transmissions. Well, these were some technical factors that works behind our detection. The other important factors are mainly from socio-behaviourological nature of aliens[see, Aliens: Friendly or Hostile]. It has already been proved that aliens would, more likely be benign who would transcend us to a higher level of technological and social developments.
So, if someone is concerned about our detection by an aggressive super-civilization (so-called METI-phobia), first of all one has to prohibit not the METI, but the radar astronomy. However, one can’t prohibit it because the radar astronomy is an important and indispensable component of the asteroid hazard and defense system. Thus, it becomes totally meaningless to presume the possibility of alien invasion alone due to METI transmissions. But what, if alien armada is detected right over your head, washing you in a bluish laser light to abduct you as a bate for their unholy demands/nukes(as one ufo researcher, Robert Hastings claimed)? Well, that’s the matter for next article. It’s time to welcome METI and our alien brothers.
[Ref: Detection Probability of Terrestrial Radio Signals by a Hostile Super-civilization by Dr. Alexander L. Zaitsev]